Source: Eurasia Review
As a nuclear weapons’ state, Pakistan faces a number of challenges,
which if unaddressed could cause a severe damage to Pakistan’s
international image as well as to the safety and security of nuclear
weapons of Pakistan.
It is acknowledged secret that Pakistan has a
robust command control system with its weapons kept unassembled and
dispersed at different places with multilayered security arrangements.
As a result potential terrorists would have to toil a lot to obtain
access to those weapons. These are extremely complex challenges and next
to impossible for the terrorists to cross all the thresholds and layers
of security undetected. Thus, the strict security arrangements around
nuclear facilities and lack of nuclear knowledge may hinder terrorists
to steal fissile material and attempt to manufacture a workable nuclear
weapon. In a more plausible scenario it could be that terrorists may
assemble an RDD (radiological dispersal devices) or dirty bombs.1 For
the said purpose, terrorists would need fissile material and a lot of
technical know-how to fabricate such device.
A Case Building Scenario: Threats of Nuclear Sabotage against Pakistan
Immense hype by global media, presence of agents like Raymond Davis and private forces like Blackwaters and DynCorp in Pakistan are the crucial reasons to forecast the alarming scenario vis-à-vis security of Pakistan’s nuclear assets. The literature reveals that US opinion makers like David Albright, David Sanger, Frederick Kagan and Michael O’Hanalon, Thomas Ricks and Peter Wonacott has raised the same kind of queries over the safety and security of Pakistan’s nuclear assets.2 The following discussion reveals the western efforts and covert agenda by the different tactics to discard Pakistan’s security arrangements. Thus, the prospects of filing a case of nuclear material’s theft/transfer or sabotage against Pakistan could be built.
Global Media Hype over Insecurity of Pakistan’s Nuclear Assets
Osama Bin Laden episode and PNS Mehran attack has added fuel in the
ongoing crisis in Pakistan. The global media started raising questions
about the role of Pakistan in WOT as dual or suspicious. There had been
number of evidences which reveal that global media is creating
sensational hypes to tag Pakistan as rogue state. For instance Mariot
Leslie, who was the director general of Defence and intelligence at the
Foreign Office but is now Britain’s ambassador to NATO said that recent
intelligence indicates that Pakistan is not going in a good direction.
He believed that “The UK has deep concerns about the safety and security
of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, and China could play a big role in
stabilizing Pakistan.”3 According to Wikileaks, UK, USA, and France have
raised high concerns that Pakistani nuclear assets may fall into the
hands of terrorists. The leaked documents revealed that in 2008, the US
ambassador to Islamabad, Anne Patterson, cabled to Washington that a
rogue scientist in the Pakistani nuclear programme could gradually
smuggle enough material out to eventually make a weapon for a terrorist
group.4 In another cable released by the Wikileaks, concerns has been
raised that two main sources from which nuclear materials or a weapon
could be obtained are Pakistan and the states of the former Soviet
Union.5
Moreover, Pakistan as a nuclear state has also been
described as a “Nightmare” and a “Headache” for the international
community.6 The Russians shared concerns that Pakistan was highly
unstable. Yuri Korolev, from the Russian foreign ministry, told U.S.
officials that “Islamists are not only seeking power in Pakistan but are
also trying to get their hands on nuclear materials”.7 Furthermore,
Seymour Hersh’s report suggests that the Americans are determined to
take control of Pakistan’s nuclear assets. In one sense, it gives
credence to the conspiracy theory that the Americans are out to nullify
Pakistani sovereignty and security, the nuclear weapons epitomising
Pakistan’s sovereignty and security.8 Likewise, former US Secretary of
state, Condoleeza Rice has stated that the US has “contingency plans” in
place to deal with the possibility of Pakistani nuclear weapons falling
into unauthorised hands.9 So all in all, out put of this kind of half
truths has resulted in anti-US sentiments in Pakistan since they are
being disclosed.
CIA Ingress in Pakistan with Clandestine Agenda
The War on
Terror gave a gateway to US officials to visit Pakistan as per the
requirement. It is assumed that since than CIA has launched the covert
agents in Pakistan to spy over different US concerns. It is reported
that at the end of 2009, a special presidential order was issued to give
7,000 visas and the same order was passed through the PM’s office to
Mr. Hussain Haqqani.10 This bestowed the CIA an opportunity to get her
agents penetrated in Pakistan, disguised as diplomats etc. The captured
CIA agent Raymond Davis episode has become an open secret to the world.
Following is the brief analysis of what Raymond Davis, DynCorp and other
Blackwater private contractors have been doing in Pakistan?
a) Blackwater/Xe illicit Activities
Blackwater
Worldwide, formerly Blackwater USA, is a private military company
founded in 1997 by Erik Prince, and Al Clark.11 In October 2007,
Blackwater USA renamed itself Blackwater Worldwide, and was known simply
as “Blackwater”. The intelligence official says Blackwater came to the
tribal belt for two reasons. “First, to track down Al-Qaeda and Taliban
leaders, which US agencies believe, are hiding along the Pak-Afghan
border. Secondly, to provide security to the various projects launched
by USAID in NWFP, and some tribal areas.”12
According to media
anchor Hamid Mir, an Islamabad-based Defence and security analyst, this
is a huge threat for our national security. He claims that Blackwater is
not only operating in Peshawar but is also active in the southern port
city of Karachi. Mir believes that unlike Iraq and Afghanistan,
Blackwater would not operate with impunity in Pakistan. “In Iraq and
Afghanistan, Blackwater has had the cover and support of occupational
forces, but the situation is different in Pakistan,”.13 Sources believe
that the number of Davis like CIA and Blackwater agents are high and may
be around one hundred. However, there is no exact number available with
the authorities.14
The terrorists and non state actors operating
in FATA and other parts of Pakistan are equipped with highly
sophisticated weaponry. It is assumed that Blackwater provided such
weaponry to these groups. Moreover, it is believed that Blackwater gain
information from the local sources regarding lucrative targets in FATA
for drone attacks. This enables us to conclude that when so strong US
organizations would maintain relations with non state actors, and then
non state actors (NSA) would surely gain strength and influence, which
would complicate the struggle in the war on terror as well as the
efforts to curb nuclear terrorism.
b) DynCorp Spying key Nuclear Facility of Pakistan
DynCorp
is a Blackwater type private security agency that works for American
CIA outside the United States. It was allowed to operate in sensitive
areas, including the Sihala Police College by Musharraf. DynCorp’s
activities under the cover of Anti-Terrorism Assistance Programme (ATAP)
have been found suspicious. In 2009, three Americans along with a
Pakistani had tried to trespass into the restricted area of Kahuta but
the official security agency deployed at the check post got alerted and
intercepted them, when they crossed the check post. The Pakistani
accompanying these Americans was a retired assistant director of the
FIA, who while introducing himself as a FIA officer had managed to free
the Americans and returned.15 Many believes that this one incident had a
vital role in moving out DynCorp men from the Sihala Police College
facility, where they were allowed to train the police officials but were
found in spying on the country’s nuclear facility.16
c) Raymond Davis linkage with Terrorists Organization
Raymond
Davis, a former special operations soldier who had been working with
the CIA as a contractor, was captured on murder charges, of two
Pakistanis and then released on diplomatic immunity in Pakistan. The
data recovered from the GPS device seized from double murder-accused US
national Raymond Davis possession shows that the alleged CIA agent had
been in Islamabad, Lahore, Peshawar and even some tribal areas of
Pakistan.17 The primary job of Davis was to trail links of the Taliban
and Al Qaeda in different parts of Pakistan but the investigators found
that he had developed close links with the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan
(TTP).18 Davis was instrumental in recruiting young people from Punjab
for the Taliban to fuel the bloody insurgency.19 The Punjab law minister
has said that Davis could be tried for anti-state activities.20 Rana
Sanaullah claims that the spying gadgets and sophisticated weapons
recovered are never used by diplomats.21 The most worrisome aspect of
the investigation revealed that:
The call records of the cellular phones recovered from Davis have established his links with 33 Pakistanis, including 27 militants from the TTP and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi sectarian outfit, sources said. Davis was also said to be working on a plan to give credence to the American notion that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are not safe. For this purpose, he was setting up a group of the militant which would do his bidding.22
d) Key Findings of Case Building Scenario against Pakistan
Western
blame game, media upheavals for tagging Pakistan as rogue state,
international concerns raised in Wikileaks the Secret US cables,
presence of Blackwater and DynCorp with their spying activities, and
Raymond Davis’s activities as a covert agent have created grave
ambiguity for Pakistani leadership. Lets analyse these events which went
in row, the US Department of Homeland Security issued a grim warning
that the threat of terror strike on America is at a higher level than it
has been since September 11, 2001,23 and the Wikileaks also revealed
that al Qaeda is on the brink of using a nuclear bomb. US constructed a
conspiracy to be believed and supported by international community, and
this could be viewed vividly in Raymond Davis case.
The ominous face
of Raymond Davis investigation is that top-secret CIA documents found
in Davis’s possession point to his, and/or TF373, providing to al Qaeda
terrorists “nuclear fissile material” and “biological agents”24 they
claim are to be used against the United States itself in order to ignite
an all-out war in order to re-establish the West’s hegemony over a
Global economy that warned, is just months away from collapse.25
Furthermore,
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad pointed the finger at Washington
during a media conference in Tehran that US may have been planning to
sabotage Pakistan’s nuclear facilities. He claimed that:
We have precise information that America wants to sabotage the Pakistani nuclear facilities in order to control Pakistan and to weaken the government and people of Pakistan.26
The reports show
that Pakistani intelligence agencies claim that prevailing terror in
the state has its external linkage, as ISI chief Lt Gen Ahmed Shuja
Pasha said that “The Western powers are involved in terrorism and
destabilization of the country”.27
Furthermore, West believes that
“the most dangerous nation in the world isn’t Iraq, its Pakistan.”28
With such circumstances, Professor Dr. Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema claims that:
There have been reports of secret simulation war games going in the US aimed at exploring the nuclear weapons of Pakistan and getting hold of them whenever its required that is when Pakistan’s political institutions and military safeguards start falling apart.29
For many
reasons, given in the above discussion, it could be scrutinized that
Western powers may assist some religious terrorists groups through
clandestine means to commit the acts of nuclear terrorism to pursue
their greater objectives.
Notes:
1. Abdul
Mannan, “Preventing Nuclear Terrorism in Pakistan,” The Henry L. Stimson
Centre, April 2007, Available at:
http://www.stimson.org/southasia/pdf/VFMannan.pdf, Retrieved on: 22
June, 2011. Also Muhammad Khurshid Khan, “Nuclear Technology
Proliferation: Challenges and International Response,” IPRI Journal,
Volume VIII, winter, 2008.
2. Rabia Akhtar, “Pakistan’s Nuclear Assets: Safe and Secure,” June 2009, CBRN South Asia Brief, No. 13. p.1.
3. “Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons Could end up in the hands of terrorists:
Britain and America’s deep concern revealed,” December 2010, Available
at:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1334550/WikiLeaks–Pakistans-nuclear-weapons-end-hands-terrorists-Britain-Americas-deep-concern-revealed.html#ixzz1O0RUTiQ,
Retrieved on: 22 June, 2011.
4. Robert Winnett and Gordon Rayner,
“Wikileaks: Britain’s Concerns over Safety of Pakistan’s Nuclear
Weapons,” December 2010, Available at:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8172228/WikiLeaks-Britains-concerns-over-safety-of-Pakistans-nuclear-weapons.html,
Retrieved on: 24 June, 2011.
5.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/blogs/the-bishops-gambit/wikileaks-revelations-reaffirm-us-leadership-20110427-1dvfz.html#ixzz1O0S7I97j,
Retrieved on: 24 June, 2011.
6. “Wikileaks: Pakistan, the world’s
Nightmare” November 2010, Available at:
http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2010-11-29/us/28229251_1_private-nightmare-nuclear-assets-cables,
Retrieved on: 27 June, 2011.
7. David Leigh, “Diplomats warn of
India-Pakistan Nuclear Exchange: Wikileaks”, 2010, Available at:
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article924226.ece?homepage=true&css=print,
Retrieved on: 27 June, 2011.
8. Ishtiaq Ahmed, “Pakistan’s Nuclear
Weapons: How Safe Are They?” ISAS Brief, No. 140, November 2009,
Available at: www.isas.nus.edu.sg, Retrieved on: 27 June, 2011.
9.
Ishtiaq Ahmed, “Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons: How Safe Are They?” ISAS
Brief, No. 140, November 2009, Available at: www.isas.nus.edu.sg,
Retrieved on: 27 June, 2011.
10. “Visas for Americans Create rift in
Pakistan” The Dawn, 13 May 2011, Available at:
www.dawn.com/…/visas-for-americans-create-rifts-in-pakistan.html,
Retrieved on: 27 June, 2011.
11. “Back In Iraq: The Whores Of War,” Available at http://www.sundayherald.com/oped/, Retrieved on: 27 June, 2011.
12. Aamir Latif, “Blackwaters in Pakistan,” Available at:
http://www.islamonline.net/servlet/Satellite?c=Article_C&cid=1203758435570&pagename=Zone-English-News%2FNWELayout,
Retrieved on: 29 June, 2011.
13. Ibid
14. Ansar Abbasi, Ansar
Abbasi, “How many Davis-type agents are in Pakistan?” THE NEWS, February
24, 2011. Available at:
http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=4186&Cat=13&dt=2/24/2011,
Retrieved on: 29 June, 2011.
15. “Davis linked to militants, says
official” The Peninsula Qatar, Wednesday, 23 February 2011. Available
at:
http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/pakistan/afghanistan/143562-davis-linked-to-militants-says-official.html.
Retrieved on: 29 June, 2011.
16.Ibid.
17. “Pak investigators retrieve data from Davis’ cell phones, GPS device” Sify Com,
26-02-2011. Available at
http://www.sify.com/news/pak-investigators-retrieve-data-from-davis-cell-phones-gps-device-news-international-lc0nueafhch.html,
Retrieved on: 30 June, 2011.
18. “Davis linked to militants, says official” The Peninsula Qatar, Wednesday, Op. Cit.
19. Qaiser Butt, “CIA agent Davis had ties with local militants”, February 22, 2011, Available at:
http://tribune.com.pk/story/122105/cia-agent-davis-had-ties-with-local-militants/, Retrieved on: 30
20. Ibid.
21. Ibid.
22. Ibid.
23. Ibid.
24. “CIA Spy Captured Giving Nuclear Bomb To Terrorists” European Union
Times, February 11th, 2011. Available at:
http://www.eutimes.net/2011/02/cia-spy-captured-giving-nuclear-bomb-to-terrorists/,
Retrieved on: 30 June, 2011.
25. Ibid.
26. “US seeking to
sabotage Pakistan’s nuclear facilities, Ahmadinejad,” 7 June 2011,
Available at:
http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2011/06/us-seeking-to-sabotage-pakistan’s-nuclear-facilities-ahmadinejad/,
Retrieved on: 30 June, 2011.
27. “Foreign powers behind terrorism:
DG ISI” 08 July 2010, Available at:
http://www.samaa.tv/News22453-Foreign_powers_behind_terrorism_DG_ISI.aspx,
Retrieved on: 30 June, 2011.
28. Ron Moreau, “Where the Jihad Lives
Now,” 2007, Available at:
http://www.newsweek.com/2007/10/20/where-the-jihad-lives-now.html,
Retrieved on: 30 June, 2011.
29. Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema, “Are Pakistan’s Nukes in Safe Hands?” The Post: December 9th, 2007.
