Source: Voice of Russia
Boris Volkhonsky
Iran – U.S.: game of nerves and muscles
As reported by The Los Angeles
Times, The U.S. Navy is upgrading its defensive and offensive
capabilities in the Persian Gulf to counter threats from Iran to seize
the Strait of Hormuz and block the flow of oil.
Admiral
Jonathan W. Greenert told reporters that the Navy will add four more
mine-sweeping ships and four more CH-53 Sea Stallion helicopters with
mine-detection capability. The Navy is also sending more underwater
unmanned mine-neutralization units to the region.
On
the other hand, according to reports, the Iranians have boasted that
they could “swarm” large U.S. ships with their smaller, fast-moving
craft. They have also reportedly been laying mines along their
coastline.
In January, the chief of the Iranian army
warned the U.S. not to send another ship to the Persian Gulf after the
aircraft carrier John C. Stennis departed. Another carrier, the Abraham
Lincoln, entered the gulf weeks later without incident.
Almost
simultaneously, U.S. President Barack Obama issued an executive order
titled “National Defense Resources Preparedness.” The executive order,
published on the official White House website, “delegates authorities
and addresses national defense resource policies” “in times of national
emergency.” Several media have already labeled the document as an
attempt to impose a state of emergency in peacetime. In any case, this
is definitely a new indication of the U.S. readiness for any course of
development in the most volatile region of the world.
And,
as if to further strengthen the impression, The New York Times reported
on Monday that “a classified war simulation held this month to assess
the repercussions of an Israeli attack on Iran forecasts that the strike
would lead to a wider regional war, which could draw in the United
States and leave hundreds of Americans dead.”
Although
the U.S. officials said the so-called war games were not designed as a
rehearsal for American military action, they have raised fears among top
American planners that it may be impossible to preclude American
involvement in any escalating confrontation with Iran.
So,
apparently the U.S. authorities want to create an assumption that a war
with Iran is inevitable, and the only remaining questions is, who is to
launch the first strike, and when will it happen?
In
fact, both sides (or, all three, if we think of Israel as an
independent side) are acting in order to give the other one a chance to
launch the first blow. Definitely, starting a war does not seem to be in
Iran’s interest, since it will further increase the international
isolation the country has found itself in, and if Iran emerges as the
initiator, it might mean that it will lose what remains of at least some
support it has now. And total isolation would only mean a collapse of
Iran’s already strained economy – possessing oil is a good thing, but
you can never feed your subjects with oil.
Also, for
the U.S. it does not seem to be in its national interest (at least,
obviously not in the partisan interests of the Democrats and President
Obama) to appear as the initiator. Much has been said about the Iranian
nuclear program, but so far no consistent evidence that the program
pursues any other ends apart from peaceful ones, has been presented. And
the memories of similar insinuations concerning the alleged weapon
program in Iraq under Saddam Hussein are still fresh. As everyone
remembers, the alleged weapons of mass destruction served as an excuse
for the U.S. to launch a war in 2003, but no such weapons have been
found.
This probably explains why the U.S. sticks to
the scenario under which it will be Israel who initiates the war. In
that case, it will give the U.S. a plausible excuse for being involved
with the sole purpose to defend its core ally.
But
again, a war in the pre-election period would hardly improve the
incumbent president’s standing. Hence, the U.S. is trying to lay off the
bottom line till better times.
The only casus belli
that could be easily fed to the U.S. public is an Iranian strike. But
that needs a lot of effort to force Iran into coercive action. As has
been shown constantly, Iran is quite satisfied with the present state of
“neither war nor pence” which enables it to keep at least some national
unity at home and not to subject itself to extensively strict
sanctions.
But for the U.S. whose aim is obvious –
that is the change of the regime in Iran, the stalemate cannot last too
long. Therefore, in coming weeks and months we will probably see an
escalation of war games, which by now have been games of muscles and
nerves only, but have a potential of turning into a full-scale war.
Boris Volkhonsky, senior research fellow, Russian Institute for Strategic Studies
